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Hungary will likely send four to six parties to the next European Parliament, participants in a conference attended by public opinion research institutes concluded. Citing their latest EP election surveys, the analysts said the ruling Fidesz-Christian Democrat alliance, nationalist Jobbik, the Socialists-Párbeszéd alliance and the leftist Democratic Coalition (DK) were likely to win seats in this Sunday’s ballot, with LMP and the Momentum Movement also in with a shot.
At the conference presenting the latest polls by the Nézőpont Institute, Závecz Research, the Publicus Institute, Századvég and Medián, the analysts were in agreement that the ruling parties are the strongest with over 50% support.
Turnout is expected to exceed 32% and may even reach 40%, they said.
Endre Hann, Medián’s director, projected a turnout of 35-36%. Citing Medián’s latest poll commissioned by business weekly HVG to be released on Thursday, he said Jobbik could end up as the second strongest party. Citing Median’s “expert estimate”, Hann said Fidesz was expected to win 13 seats in the next European Parliament, Jobbik 3, the Socialists-Párbeszéd alliance and DK 2 each and Momentum 1 seat. Fidesz is projected to win 52% of the vote, followed by Jobbik with 11.5%, Socialists-Párbeszéd with 10.5%, DK with 10% and Momentum with 5.5%. LMP is projected to get 4% of the vote and the Two-Tailed Dog Party and Mi Hazánk 3% each, he added.
Dániel Nagy, the Nézőpont Institute’s director of research, put turnout between 32% and 40%. He said it was “no question” that Fidesz would win the election with over 50% of the vote and between 1.3 and 1.4 million votes. Nagy said there were three parties heading into the election with high stakes. For LMP and Momentum, he said, clearing the 5% threshold could also mean their survival, adding that Jobbik was at risk of “completely falling apart”.
Tibor Závecz, the head of Závecz Research, compared last year’s general election results with his institute’s latest projections for Sunday. While turnout last year exceeded 70%, this year it is expected to fall around 45%, he said, noting that this would also translate to fewer votes cast for all parties. According to Závecz’s calculations, Fidesz is expected to receive 27% fewer votes this year, with Jobbik’s tally dropping by 59% and the Socialists-Párbeszéd alliance’s by 41%. LMP is expected to see a drop of 53% and Momentum 20%, he added. DK is the only party expected to receive more votes compared with last year, with the party set for a 27% gain, Závecz said.
András Pulai, CEO of the Publicus Institute, said the leading issue among Hungarian voters was how much funding Hungary will be getting from the European Union in the next cycle, with 29% citing it as their top concern. Fully 19% of their respondents cited migration as their number one issue, Pulai added. Altogether 20% of respondents said they will vote for the parties they normally vote for.